Archive for February 27, 2012

As published by Wikileaks Here

Ive changed some of the word colouring to red to highlight some interesting facts that have come up in this email. Serious this is a MUST READ about Iran, Israel and the USA.

 

On Monday February 27th, 2012, WikiLeaks began publishing The Global Intelligence Files, over five million e-mails from the Texas headquartered “global intelligence” company Stratfor. The e-mails date between July 2004 and late December 2011. They reveal the inner workings of a company that fronts as an intelligence publisher, but provides confidential intelligence services to large corporations, such as Bhopal’s Dow Chemical Co., Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon and government agencies, including the US Department of Homeland Security, the US Marines and the US Defence Intelligence Agency. The emails show Stratfor’s web of informers, pay-off structure, payment laundering techniques and psychological methods.
Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN – Barak hails munitions blast in Iran
Email-ID 185945
Date 2011-11-14 15:40:05
From bokhari@stratfor.com
To alpha@stratfor.com
List-Name alpha@stratfor.com
I am not saying that we should believe something only when it hits the OS.
My point is about proceeding forward from a single source report. We
shouldn’t completely dismiss it but the issue is confirmation before
something related pops up in the OS.

On 11/14/11 9:30 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

Yes but an intelligence agency that secures a single piece of insight
that is then corroborated by the infamous OS leads one to believe that
either the same source is responsible for both or perhaps there is smoke
that indicates a fire? We tend to not believe things unless there is
OS. The best intel never see’s the light of day. I’m more circumspect
when it is in the OS…unless of course, we planted it.

p.s. I’m offended that we may believe an Iranian before a Jew.

cc: APAC, JINSA.

On 11/14/2011 8:21 AM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

As an intelligence entity we can’t simply accept a single piece of
insight as truth.

On 11/14/11 9:10 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

Guerrilla actions behind enemy lines.

If we think the Izzies have set back waiting on Iran to create a
bomb we are like the CIA with their inability to predict just about
anything.

Check INSIGHT I posted last week that everyone discounted. How come
if its not in OS we nash our teeth? Intelligence agencies exist to
have sources. That is what we are.

On 11/14/2011 8:06 AM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

Penetrating a major military installation and causing a blast is a
totally different ballgame. Not saying it can’t happen. But we
can’t assume that because they did stuxnet that they are capable
of doing this blast as well. It is a huge leap in capabilities.

Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

———————————————————————-

From: “Sean Noonan”
Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2011 08:03:34 -0600 (CST)
To: Alpha List
ReplyTo: Alpha List
Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN – Barak hails munitions
blast in Iran
It clearly does not. Look at the thousand centrifuges. Please
reread the 2 stuxnet analyses.

There are enough iranians who have aliyah’d to israel that they
could easily train a persian looking, farsi speaking jew to go
into Iran for sabotage and not get caught. I don’t know that this
is happening nor do I assume that there would not be mistakes, but
its very possible to do this undetected. The key is recruiting
human agents on the bases. This was clearly done with stuxnet,
though it may have been unknowingly

———————————————————————-

From: “Kamran Bokhari”
Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2011 07:59:47 -0600 (CST)
To: Alpha List
ReplyTo: Alpha List
Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN – Barak hails munitions
blast in Iran
Yeah this seems really unlikely. ’79 was a whole different
reality. The security establishment has the placed locked down.
Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

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From: Abe Selig
Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2011 07:45:14 -0600 (CST)
To: Alpha List
ReplyTo: Alpha List
Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN – Barak hails munitions
blast in Iran
There are still about 20,000 Jews in Iran (Tehran and Esfahan
mostly), but IMO, they are far too scared of being accused as
Israeli spies too actually help Israel out.

On 11/14/11 7:32 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

Ah. As stick said, they would more likely use proxies. But if
not, special operations forces do often move undetected. Don’t
think of them as going in on a helicopter, think of them as
going in with a group of migrant workers crossing the border.
There used to be a lot of jews in Iran, not so much anymore,
that’s who I would recruit form.

———————————————————————-

From: “Kamran Bokhari”
To: “Alpha List”
Sent: Monday, November 14, 2011 7:11:15 AM
Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN – Barak hails munitions
blast in Iran

See insight below.
Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

———————————————————————-

From: Sean Noonan
Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2011 07:10:06 -0600 (CST)
To: Alpha List
ReplyTo: Alpha List
Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN – Barak hails munitions
blast in Iran
what commandos?

———————————————————————-

From: “Kamran Bokhari”
To: “Alpha List”
Sent: Monday, November 14, 2011 6:39:07 AM
Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN – Barak hails munitions
blast in Iran

How did Israeli commandos get to operate deep inside Iran
without being detected?
Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

———————————————————————-

From: Sean Noonan
Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2011 05:54:41 -0600 (CST)
To: Alpha List
ReplyTo: Alpha List
Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN – Barak hails munitions
blast in Iran
I agree. The argument here is that the proponents of
conventional war are ones that want the oil prices-but is it
really that simple? What about other economic effects? For
Israel, by this argument, it doesn’t matter what method as long
as it sets Iran back—-I agree with this. However, the
confidence that this guy has does not show publicly. By that, I
mean look at what Dagan was saying a year ago, and how quiet
Israeli leaders have been. Suddenly they are really pushing the
issue, and while Dagan isn’t it, his line is that conventional
war would be a mistake, not that Iran doesn’t need to be dealt
with. I don’t really like trying to interpret public
statements, but I think there is something here, and that’s why
I keep pushing this.

———————————————————————-

From: “Chris Farnham”
To: “Alpha List”
Sent: Sunday, November 13, 2011 7:22:52 PM
Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN – Barak hails munitions
blast in Iran

I think the info that Fred sent in previously needs to be looked
quite seriously here.

The insight seems like quite a stretch however it has been put
out there for some reason or another and is now playing in to
what we are seeing.

Insight below:

Source below was asked to clarify his remarks that the nuclear
infrastructure had been destroyed. Source response:

Israeli commandos in collaboration with Kurd forces destroyed
few underground facilities mainly used for the Iranian defense
and nuclear research projects.

Despite the reports in the media and against any public
knowledge, the promoter of a massive Israeli attack on Syria is
the axis India-Russia-Turkey-Saudi Arabia. The axis
US-Germany-France-China is against such an attack from obvious
reasons. Not many people know that Russia is one of Israel’s
largest military partners and India is Israel’s largest client.

If a direct conflict between Iran and Israel erupts, Russia and
Saudi Arabia will gain the advantages on oil increasing prices.
On the other hand, China and Europe are expected to loose from
an oil crisis as a result of a conflict. Based on Israeli plans,
the attack on Iran will last only 48 hours but will be so
destructive that Iran will be unable to retaliate or recover and
the government will fall. It is hard to believe that Hamas or
Hezbollah will try to get involved in this conflict.

In the open media many are pushing and expecting Israel to
launch a massive attack on Iran. Even if the Israelis have the
capabilities and are ready to attack by air, sea and land, there
is no need to attack the nuclear program at this point after the
commandos destroyed a significant part of it.

If a massive attack on Iran happens soon, then the attack will
have political and oil reasons and not nuclear. It is also very
hard to believe that the Israelis will initiate an attack unless
they act as a contractor for other nations or if Iran or its
proxies attack first. With the revealed of the new UN report the
Israelis have green light to take care of the Iranian proxies in
Gaza and Lebanon now with the entire world watching Iran. I
think that we should expect escalations on these fronts rather
than an Israeli attack on Iran.

On 11/7/11 8:09 AM, Chris Farnham wrote: Ah, what? Israel has
already destroyed the Iranian prog/infra and this is all being
engineered by Europeans so people forget about the economy
crisis?!

How and when did the Israelis destroy the infra on the ground?

Why is that we see the vast majority of the increase in pressure
coming from Israel (I mean straight from people’s mouths) and
from the US (Such as Albright in the WaPo)?

Would anyone actually accept that this could let the Europeans
forget about the Euro crisis, something they have been
experiencing every day for over a year?!

Do we attribute any credibility to this item at all? I don’t
even see what possible disinfo purposes this could serve.

On 11/7/11 7:54 AM, Benjamin Preisler wrote:

Code: IL701
Publication: for background
Attribution: none
Source Description – Confirmed Israeli Intelligence Agent
Source reliability: Still testing
Item credibility: untested
Source handler: Fred

Source was asked what he thought of reports that the Israelis
were preparing a military offensive against Iran. Response:

I think this is a diversion. The Israelis already destroyed
all the Iranian nuclear infrastructure on the ground weeks
ago. The current “let’s bomb Iran” campaign was ordered by the
EU leaders to divert the public attention from their at home
financial problems. It plays also well for the US since
Pakistan, Russia and N. Korea are mentioned in the report.

The result of this campaign will be massive attacks on Gaza
and strikes on Hezbollah in both Lebanon and Syria.

———————————————————————-

From: “Reva Bhalla”
To: analysts@stratfor.com
Sent: Monday, 14 November, 2011 11:52:04 AM
Subject: Re: S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN – Barak hails munitions blast in
Iran

wow, that’s an extremely revealing statement. The Israelis (i
believe it was even Barak then too) made very similar comments
following the Stuxnet news as well. THe whole ‘I’m not going to
admit publicly that we did it, but boy that was nice.’

i think we need a piece laying out the details as far as we know
of what happened and where and point out the holes in the
accident theory. i think our assessment on the constraints of an
Israeli attack on Iranian sites holds. It’s the sabotage efforts
where the most resources are being concentrated, which makes a
lot of strategic and tactical sense for Israel and US in dealing
with Iran at this stage

———————————————————————-

From: “Ben West”
To: “alerts”
Sent: Sunday, November 13, 2011 2:40:06 PM
Subject: S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN – Barak hails munitions blast in
Iran

Interesting comments by the defense minister.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5i28MvYyqR9sGxc2cZ4U1QlPPQFLA?docId=CNG.93c1b5af9b6cb71a17bf389563809eb2.a1
Israel hails deadly blast in Iran

(AFP) – 1 hour ago

JERUSALEM – Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak on Sunday hailed
the deadly munitions blast at a base of Iran’s elite
Revolutionary Guards and hoped for more such incidents.

“I don’t know the extent of the explosion,” he told military
radio, asked about the incident. “But it would be desirable if
they multiply.”

Iran said earlier that a senior general who pioneered an
artillery and missile unit was among the 17 Guards reported
killed in Saturday’s blast at Bid Ganeh, near the town of Malard
on the western outskirts of Tehran.

Guards spokesman commander Ramezan Sharif said the blast, which
Iran said was an accident, occurred as “ammunition was taken out
of the depot and was being moved outside toward the appropriate
site.”

Set up after the 1979 Islamic revolution to defend Iran, the
Guards are in charge of the Islamic republic’s missile
programme, including Shahab-3 missiles with a range of 2,000
kilometres (1,200 miles) capable of hitting Israel.

Saturday’s blast came amid international condemnation of Iran
since the release of a new UN nuclear watchdog report accusing
Tehran of working towards the development of nuclear warheads to
fit inside its medium-range missiles.

Israeli officials have in past weeks warned Iran of the
possibility of military strikes against its nuclear sites.

Ben West
Tactical Analyst
STRATFOR
512-744-4300
ext. 4340

Chris Farnham
Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
Australia Mobile: 0423372241
Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
http://www.stratfor.com


Sean Noonan
Tactical Analyst
STRATFOR
T: +1 512-279-9479 | M: +1 512-758-5967
http://www.STRATFOR.com


Sean Noonan
Tactical Analyst
STRATFOR
T: +1 512-279-9479 | M: +1 512-758-5967
http://www.STRATFOR.com


Sean Noonan
Tactical Analyst
STRATFOR
T: +1 512-279-9479 | M: +1 512-758-5967
http://www.STRATFOR.com



Abe Selig
Officer, Operations Center
STRATFOR
T: 512.279.9489 | M: 512.574.3846
http://www.STRATFOR.com

 

Republished from wikileaks.org under the “fair use” Copyright Policy.

As Published Here

On Monday February 27th, 2012, WikiLeaks began publishing The Global Intelligence Files, over five million e-mails from the Texas headquartered “global intelligence” company Stratfor. The e-mails date between July 2004 and late December 2011. They reveal the inner workings of a company that fronts as an intelligence publisher, but provides confidential intelligence services to large corporations, such as Bhopal’s Dow Chemical Co., Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon and government agencies, including the US Department of Homeland Security, the US Marines and the US Defence Intelligence Agency. The emails show Stratfor’s web of informers, pay-off structure, payment laundering techniques and psychological methods.

Re: Insight–for internal use only–On pain of agony
Email-ID 5509401
Date 2010-02-20 20:37:58
From goodrich@stratfor.com
To bokhari@stratfor.com, richmond@stratfor.com, reva.bhalla@stratfor.com, friedman@att.blackberry.net, secure@stratfor.com
No wonder Medvedev has 2 trips planned to Turkey this spring….. Russia
will try to take advantage.

Reva Bhalla wrote:

yes… turkey isn’t only using Iran as the cause for the break. look at
turkey’s public outrage over the Israeli offensive in Gaza as an
example. Turkey is already pretty tight with Russia, but this doesn’t
mean Turkey has to necessarily get closer to Russia. Turkey will play
nice with the Russians but also wants to show it can play on its own
On Feb 20, 2010, at 11:14 AM, Jennifer Richmond wrote:

I meant to say, if not for Iran, would he look for other
places/weaknesses in the US/Israel relationship to cause a break?
And, if he did break with these two, would it mean necessarily that he
would move closer to Russia?

Reva Bhalla wrote:

US and Israel are the ones that matter. it’s about redefining
Turkey’s role as an independent power
On Feb 20, 2010, at 11:04 AM, Jennifer Richmond wrote:

Erdogan is looking to break with the US and Israel? Are there
other possible places he could do this, if he is actively trying?

George Friedman wrote:

Turkey would break with israel and the united states. It would
be an opportunity erdogan is looking for.

Iran would become more visible but not more powerful. A year
after the attack its underlying weakness would still be there
and its dependence on turkey greater.

In my view the ourtcome of this is turkish power. But remeber,
my insight is not that israel will attack. Its that kissinger
thinks they will attack. Huge difference.

$

Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

———————————————————————-

From: “Kamran Bokhari”
Date: Sat, 20 Feb 2010 15:55:16 +0000
To: Secure List
Subject: Re: Insight–for internal use only–On pain of agony
All my sources – regardless of factional affiliation – are
convinced that Iran is preparing for war and one that will make
the regime more stronger. Did you see Bob Baer make the same
argument in TIME? Any attack on Iran will make it very difficult
for Turkey. It will be forced to take a stand against the war
and there could be trouble with the United States. Such a
conflict will be a test of Turkey’s resurgence and moves towards
a more independent foreign policy.

Sent from my BlackBerry device on the Rogers Wireless Network

———————————————————————-

From: “George Friedman”
Date: Sat, 20 Feb 2010 15:47:49 +0000
To: Kamran Bokhari; George
Friedman; Secure
List
Subject: Re: Insight–for internal use only–On pain of agony
I believe th us will premempt. But there is no clear time line.

Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

———————————————————————-

From: “Kamran Bokhari”
Date: Sat, 20 Feb 2010 15:43:38 +0000
To: George Friedman; Secure
List
Subject: Re: Insight–for internal use only–On pain of agony
Understood. What is your own assessment of the view that the
Israelis will attack?

Sent from my BlackBerry device on the Rogers Wireless Network

———————————————————————-

From: George Friedman
Date: Sat, 20 Feb 2010 09:41:03 -0600
To: Secure List
Subject: Insight–for internal use only–On pain of agony
Internal use only

Some nuggets from meeting:

Kissinger believes that the Israelis are in a panic and will
attack Iran. Erdogan has made it clear to him that he plans to
break with Israel at some point and reorient toward the Islamic
world. He intends to be their leader. Paul Volcker regards the
Greek crisis as potentially a mortal blow for the EU. He would
like to see an IMF tranche. He also said that Nicholas Brady is
behind both this and the Volcker principles Obama adopted. When
I asked Brady how he expects to get the the U.S. to go along
with an IMF bailout, he shrugged and said they won’t, but that’s
the only choice. Volcker is now doubtful the Euro can survive.
Brady is convinced it will. Kissinger thinks Volcker and Brady
are missing the real crisis which is in Iran and potentially
Russia. Volcker also says that the Bank of England and the
French will go along with the Volcker rules on an international
basis–that is returning to a variety of Glass-Steagal. The
Japanese will do whatever is said, and in Germany only Deutsche
Bank really makes decisions. Sarkozy told him he would come in.
So there may be an international convention on restructuring
banks under way–Volcker is pretty careful in what he says and
doesn’t promote himself more than the average bear, so this may
be the case. Nick Brady thinks so too.

Total confusion on situation in China, but more on Obama. They
don’t understand who is running China policy. The decision to
meet with the Dalia Lama strikes them as particularly bizarre.
But China is the least of the discussion. It is about Greece
and Iran. China is kind of an afterthought.

I asked Tim Reed who ran Resolution Trust Corporation during the
S&L crisis under Nick Brady whether a new RTC would have been
better as a supplement to TARP and he agreed but said that
Paulsen was so panicked he wasn’t thinking and Bernaecke and he
were just responding.

One sense I’m getting here is that the American elite, along
with Europe’s, China’s and just about everyone but Russia’s his
suffering from three problems: First, none are really aware of
the political pressures on other elites. Second, they
completely misunderstand the alienation of the publics, three,
except for Volcker, they think this can be handled by the elites
among themselves. We have a crisis of the elites, in my view.

I get to hold forth in an hour or so, and I’m going to argue
that Iran is going out of control because of the elite crisis.
No decision making is going on and the decisions that are being
made won’t be supported in the public. The only country that is
acting decisively and can do so is Russia.

This is for our own internal use. This must not be published or
discussed outside Stratfor.

George Friedman
Founder and CEO
Stratfor
700 Lavaca Street
Suite 900
Austin, Texas 78701
Phone 512-744-4319
Fax 512-744-4334


Jennifer Richmond
China Director, Stratfor
US Mobile: (512) 422-9335
China Mobile: (86) 15801890731
Email: richmond@stratfor.com
http://www.stratfor.com


Jennifer Richmond
China Director, Stratfor
US Mobile: (512) 422-9335
China Mobile: (86) 15801890731
Email: richmond@stratfor.com
http://www.stratfor.com


Lauren Goodrich
Director of Analysis
Senior Eurasia Analyst
Stratfor
T: 512.744.4311
F: 512.744.4334
lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
http://www.stratfor.com

As published on Wikileaks.org

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